SURREY WINTER STATISTICS SCHOOL – SWISS 2018

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 — We are still a long way from the vaccine coverage that effectively reduces the circulation of the virus, which requires two doses or single-dose vaccines. We are around 18% of the population, while something around 75% is needed.

Until then, the high circulation of the virus favors the emergence of variants such as Delta, which can put a lot to lose of what we have already advanced – explains the epidemiologist of the Hospital de Clínicas in the Capital Ricardo Kuchenbecker.Even partial, vaccination has helped to reduce the moving average of daily deaths (calculated on the basis of the previous seven days), which continues to fall in the country.

In two weeks, until Monday (26) there was a 15% decrease in that number – it varied from 1,303 to 1,107 over that period. The assessment of the recent evolution of new cases was hampered by the inclusion, on Friday (23), of more than 60,000 positive tests that were dammed in Rio Grande do Sul. This generates an artificial increase in the average number of contaminations.

Despite this, based on general trends in recent weeks, doctor in mathematics and professor at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) Álvaro Krüger Ramos, who monitors pandemic statistics, believes in an evolution in the fight against the coronavirus in 2022 .

— My expectation, consistent with the numbers we have seen, is that 2022 will be the year for us to readjust to normality. We’ll have to live with the pandemic, maybe covid-19 won’t go away. But with vaccination, it will be possible to reduce the number of deaths for a scenario compatible with the seasonal flu – analyzes the mathematician.

But there are specialists far less optimistic about the coming months. Professor of Epidemiology at the Federal University of Health Sciences of Porto Alegre (UFCSPA), Lucia Pellanda does not believe in a solution that does not involve an international effort that is still absent.Read more

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— Until we learn that the pandemic is a global problem, we will perpetuate this situation. It’s no use having vaccinations in rich countries and not in poor countries, because new variants are going to be developed – believes Lucia.

The same problem, in her assessment, is repeated at the personal level:

— It’s no use being vaccinated and going to a party where there are unvaccinated people. Today, we have seen unvaccinated epidemics. We need not only a vaccine, but also care to distance ourselves, mask and ventilate the environments until we stop the virus from circulating.

 

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